June buy-to-let sales were 28.6% lower year-on-year but still rose by 3% from the month before to reach £2.7bn, Equifax Touchstone analysis shows.
We know there was a significant jump in sales in the run-up to the April 1 stamp duty hike. This drop does tell us though that sales generally are slowing down in the buy-to-let market. The 28.6% is a year on year number so has factored in all of the increased activity during the first quarter of the year.
July will be another useful milestone
It will be the first full month since Brexit. If the number is lower again then we could make some basic assumptions that there has been some impact. Some of you may be saying that July is typically a slower month so this would be expected. Remember that these are year-on- year comparisons, so the July slow down has been factored in.
The question really is how much will uncertainty and tax changes outweigh strong fundamentals such as low unemployment (4.9%), housing shortages and mortgage rates continuing to drop.
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